Study estimates higher legal cannabis prices shift demand to illicit sellers

Published Jul 28, 2026

An NIH-supported Health Economics study of 1,525 adults estimated that 89% of the reduction in legal cannabis demand caused by higher prices could shift to illicit products; a 10% legal-flower price increase was associated with roughly a 0.9%–1% rise in illicit-flower demand. Oklahoma operators should treat the result as a pricing signal rather than a forecast: tax and compliance costs that widen the legal–illicit price gap can undermine regulated-market share.