Yale Model Projects Up to $111 Billion in Marijuana Tax Revenue Over a Decade

Yale’s Budget Lab estimates a federal THC excise tax could raise $57.9 billion over 10 years, or $111.3 billion if every state legalizes, but flags unusually high uncertainty and does not net out 280E effects. Oklahoma operators can use the model as a policy benchmark for how potency taxes might affect prices, formal employment and illicit-market conversion.